Blog: From Blue to Red: Redistricting Analysis in TX SD-10

From Blue to Red: Redistricting Analysis in TX SD-10

Last month, the Texas Legislature and Governor Greg Abbott approved new State Senate maps for the next decade, and as our recent analysis revealed, Republicans were the primary benefactor. However, one seat caught our attention more than any other, and that’s Senate District 10. Here’s why.

What Happened in SD-10?

Incumbent Senator Beverly Powell is a Democrat who’s represented Senate District 10 ever since her upset victory of an incumbent Republican in the 2018 “Blue Wave.” But if the new Texas Senate maps take effect, she’ll likely have to find a new gig. As a result of redistricting, her district shifted nearly 17% to the right, flipping from a 5.4% Democratic advantage to an 11.4% Republican advantage. As her 2018 victory was only by a margin of 3.4%, this shift in favor of Republicans would almost certainly prove fatal for her re-election hopes.



After all, even if her district lines remained the same, her 2018 Blue Wave victory would be hard to replicate in a 2022 election season which many expect to sway heavily Republicans’ favor. In fact, using a regression model based on prior Texas Senate election results, Senator Powell is modeled to lose by a margin of approximately 27% in 2022, assuming that no judicial decision requires her district’s lines to be redrawn. On the chart below, District 10’s prediction data point is at the intersection of the yellow lines. As you can see, while it is certainly one of the more contested Republican-leaning seats, Republicans have a massive advantage nonetheless.

However, Senator Powell is not going down without a fight. Earlier this month, she filed a lawsuit alleging that the new district dilutes minority voters’ electoral power. Let’s examine that claim.

SD-10 Demographic Shifts

Upon glancing at a comparison of the old SD-10 and the new SD-10 (such as the one shown below), it’s clear that the district underwent significant changes. Formerly only a subsection of Tarrant County, SD-10 now incorporates parts of Tarrant and Parker Counties, as well as the entirety of five other counties. However, this is far from enough evidence to conclude that the district was intentionally constructed to dilute the minority vote.

Perhaps the most straightforward way to examine whether the district dilutes the minority vote is to simply compare the demographics of the old and new districts. The chart below does just that. It’s true that the Hispanic, Black, and Asian votes were each reduced, and that the Anglo vote increased. But once again, is that enough evidence to claim that the minority vote was intentionally diluted? Again, not quite. After all, there are always slight demographic shifts when districts are refurnished to fit changing population dynamics. Additionally, each of the minority demographic groups decreased by a margin of 3.6% or less, which is certainly a believable shift when the district’s lines were so fundamentally changed.

Republicans have fought back against Sen. Powell’s claims that the redistricting process intentionally diluted the voices of voters of color, pointing out that they used a “race-blind” process (a term with a contradictory connotation for some). Regardless, the reality is that the new SD-10 electorate (barely) has an Anglo majority, while the old SD-10 only had an Anglo plurality.

So what’s the verdict?

While that’s a question the Texas judicial system will have to answer in the coming weeks and months, we can still provide an educated opinion with the help of some data. While it is true that the minority vote in SD-10 now has less power than it did before redistricting, minorities in other Democratic-leaning districts gained power as a result of redistricting. All things considered, we find it much more likely that the discrepancies are a result of partisan undercurrents rather than any sort of racial motivation. It’s nearly impossible to ignore politics during the redistricting process, and Sen. Powell was in an extremely vulnerable district to begin with.

This type of thing is bound to happen to someone when all 31 districts are being reshaped. Unfortunately for Sen. Powell, unless the judicial system rules in her favor, it looks like she’ll be the casualty of this decade’s redistricting process.