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Press Release: Victory Insights Wins 6 Awards at 2025 Pollie Awards

Fri, 23 May 2025 15:30:46 GMT

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

May 23, 2025

Contact: Victory Insights

info@victory-insights.com

(929) 388-6585

Victory Insights Wins 6 Awards at 2025 Pollie Awards

Colorado Springs, CO – This week, the political consulting industry gathered in Colorado Springs for the annual Pollie Awards & Conference, hosted by the American Association of Political Consultants. At this event, Victory Insights was honored with 6 awards spanning several product offerings.

Most notably, Victory Insights was awarded Gold (1st Place) in the "Best Innovation for Voter Targeting," "Best Use of Polling Research (State)," and "Best Use of Peer to Peer Texting" categories. In addition, Victory Insights was awarded Bronze (3rd Place) in the "Best Use of Polling Research (Ballot Initiative)," "Best Telephone Town Hall," and "Best Use of New Digital Technology" categories.

These awards are the result of many years of innovation by the Victory Insights team. Our proprietary technologies, utilized both in our polling and in our campaign services, are the industry standard. We will remain on the cutting edge of the political industry as we continue to work on the most advanced technologies in polling, outreach, and beyond.

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Press Release: Victory Insights Wins "Best Innovation in Survey Research" at 2025 Reed Awards

Mon, 24 Mar 2025 18:39:12 GMT

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

March 24, 2025

Contact: Victory Insights

info@victory-insights.com

(929) 388-6585

Victory Insights Wins "Best Innovation in Survey Research" at 2025 Reed Awards

Austin, TX – Last week, the political media outlet Campaigns & Elections hosted the 2025 Reed Awards, dubbed "The Political Campaign Industry Event of the Year," in Austin, Texas. At this event, Victory Insights was presented with the "Best Innovation in Survey Research" award.

Our firm was honored with this prestigious award in honor of our innovative Poll Dashboard, which has revolutionized the way poll results are presented to clients. Using an interactive dashboard and a conversational AI agent with deep knowledge of the poll results, Poll Dashboard represents the first major rethinking of survey deliverables in the industry's century-long history.

Poll Dashboard was rolled out to a select number of clients in 2024 and is already being deployed in a more extensive fashion in 2025. Furthermore, Poll Dashboard is constantly being improved upon, and is only one of many cutting-edge internal tools developed by Victory Insights. We were founded with the promise of spurring innovation in the slow-to-innovate political polling industry, and this award is proof that we're delivering on that promise.

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Press Release: Michael Way Projected to Win One of Two Seats in Arizona's 15th State House District

Tue, 30 Jul 2024 17:04:39 GMT

Exit Poll: Arizona State House District 15

Commissioned by Michael Way

Summary

We expect Michael Way to finish in the top two in the Republican Primary for Arizona’s 15th State House district, thus winning one of the two GOP nominations and becoming a presumptive winner of the general election in this deep-red district. Neal Carter will likely be the other winner, though his vote share falls within the margin of error of Peter Anello’s vote share, so our policy is to not issue an official race call on his behalf.

Overall Ballot

The chart below shows the overall results of the ballot question.

With 31% support, Way is the clear leader. Carter trails at 22%, followed by Anello at 15% and Stovall at 10%. 23% of voters remain undecided about who they’ll support. Way’s lead over Carter, though significant on its face, fails to meet the industry-standard 95% confidence level needed to conclude that he will outperform Carter. That being said, Way’s lead over all other candidates far exceeds the requisite 95% confidence level, which allows us to officially predict that Way will finish in one of the top two spots. Of course, this doesn’t mean the race is over – if, for instance, undecided voters all mysteriously decided to break for Carter and Anello, that would have a massive effect on the outcome. However, we have no reason to believe that will be the case, so we can confidently predict that Way will finish top-two.

Election Simulations

We simulated the election 10,000 times. The chart below to the left shows the distribution of vote shares for each candidate across all 10,000 simulations. You can see that the overlap (and thus uncertainty) in projected vote shares primarily exists between Way and Carter; Carter and Anello; and Anello and Stovall. The chart below to the right shows the distribution of margins of victory across all 10,000 simulations. Clearly, Way wins in the vast majority of simulations, but there are some scattered scenarios in which Carter wins, though likely by a small margin (<10%).

Blog: Fervor Over Favorability: The Poll Numbers That Hoodwinked DeSantis

Mon, 22 Jul 2024 16:13:15 GMT

The poll numbers showed that Republicans viewed Ron DeSantis more favorably than Donald Trump. The numbers were right, but DeSantis still got crushed. Here’s why.

When Ron DeSantis was deciding whether to run for the Republican nomination for President in 2024, he was riding high on a landslide re-election victory and impressive poll numbers compared to Donald Trump. Our polls here at Victory Insights showed him leading President Trump in Florida at several points throughout 2022 and 2023.

One data point that almost always stuck out (regardless of the pollster) was that DeSantis had higher favorability ratings than Trump. His donors and supporters loved to tout this fact, and DeSantis himself even trumpeted it on a radio interview in a radio interview in July of 2023, saying: “these polls... say I have the highest favorability amongst Republican voters.”

To be clear, he wasn’t wrong. For instance, our November 2022 poll at the height of DeSantis-mania found that 25% more of the GOP base held a positive opinion of DeSantis than of Trump. By April of 2023, that margin had narrowed to 5%. After DeSantis’s official campaign announcement, it jumped to 9%. And even in August, when Trump’s lead in Florida had ballooned to 36%, DeSantis still was viewed favorably by a little over 0.25% more of the Republican electorate than Trump.

So DeSantis was right: his favorability numbers were better than Trump’s, at least at the time. But it begs the question: Why did he still lose?

The quick and dirty explanation is that when voters like several candidates, they vote for the one they love. It didn’t matter that more voters liked DeSantis, since most of them loved Trump. We’ve got the data to prove it.

The chart above tells it all. Those who liked both candidates overwhelmingly sided with Trump. This includes November of 2022, when DeSantis had a double-digit lead over Trump.

The inconvenient truth is that Ron DeSantis does not deserve full blame for his erroneous decision to challenge Donald Trump for the Republican nomination. The real culprit is the out-of-touch donor base that convinced DeSantis that he had a shot to win, influenced by polls showing that voters “really liked” DeSantis.

Let this serve as a warning to future candidates: in a competitive primary election, fervor beats favorability. DeSantis had the favorability, but Trump had the fervor.

Victory Insights Wins "Best Use of Data Analytics and Machine Learning" at the 2024 Pollie Awards

Thu, 25 Apr 2024 19:38:52 GMT

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

April 25, 2024

Contact: Victory Insights

info@victory-insights.com

(929) 388-6585

Victory Insights Wins "Best Use of Data Analytics and Machine Learning" at the 2024 Pollie Awards

Washington, DC – Last week, the American Association of Political Consultants hosted the 2024 Pollie Awards in Washington, DC. At this event, Victory Insights was awarded 1st place in the "Best Use of Data Analytics and Machine Learning" category.

Our firm was honored with this prestigious award as a result of our groundbreaking campaign data management software, called Campaign Dashboard. Throughout the 2023 election cycle, Campaign Dashboard was used in dozens of campaigns to synthesize regular voter data with up-to-date on-the-ground data from polls, web forms, door-to-door campaigning, and more. Additionally, our software provides users with integrated AI chat functionality to pull outreach lists, analyze data, and receive campaign strategy recommendations driven by machine learning.

Innovation is at the heart of everything we do. We were founded with the intention of shaking up the political polling industry, and that's exactly what we've done. We look forward to continuing to innovate how data is collected, analyzed, and utilized in the political industry.

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Blog: The Victory Formula: A Data-Driven Model for General Election Success

Mon, 24 Jul 2023 14:04:11 GMT

General elections are frequently discussed, but rarely understood.

Commentary about general election outcomes often resorts to pointing fingers and saying “I told you so,” instead of focusing on available data and objective facts. We believe that the largest contributing factor to this unfortunate phenomenon is the lack of a data-driven model capable of explaining general election outcomes.

For this reason, we’ve developed such a model. This model can be expressed in two different ways: (1) qualitatively in a three-layer model for abstract discussion, and (2) formulaically for precise calculations.

Let’s start with the qualitative three-layer model. As shown in the diagram below, the base of this model is Voter Registration, followed by Turnout, and finally topped with Support.

Voter registration is the core of a party’s political operation. Without registered voters, turnout is impossible, and without turnout, winning support for the party’s candidate is impossible. For this reason, voter registration lies at the base of our model. However, it’s important to note that our model factors in the percentage of voters registered with each party, not just the absolute number. In other words, to make a positive difference, a party’s voter registration efforts must outpace the other party’s efforts.

One step up from voter registration is turnout. Our model factors in turnout on a party-by-party basis. For example: “68% of Republicans voted in the election, compared to 55% of Democrats and 39% of nonpartisans and third-party voters.”

The final step in the model is support. Support refers to the actual votes that the party’s candidate receives. In our model, support comes from three sources: partisan loyalty, partisan crossover, and nonpartisan breakers.

In our model, partisan loyalty refers to the percentage of a party’s voters who voted for the party’s candidate versus the opposing party’s candidate. For example, if 100,000 Republicans vote in the election, but only 80,000 vote for the Republican candidate, that translates to a partisan loyalty value of 80% for Republicans. So, votes from partisan loyalty are simply the votes received from members of a candidate’s own party.

Partisan crossover is essentially the opposite of partisan loyalty. It refers to votes received by a candidate from members of the opposite party. Again, this is represented in percentage form.

Finally, nonpartisan breakers are nonpartisan or third-party voters who vote for a party’s candidate. For example, let’s say 6,000 nonpartisan/third-party voters vote for the Republican candidate, while 4,000 nonpartisan/third-party voters vote for the Democratic candidate. In this case, 60% of nonpartisan breakers would “break” for the Republican candidate, while 40% would “break” for the Democratic candidate.

Using these three types of support – and factoring in the voter registration and turnout layers – we can calculate the exact margin of victory (or loss) for a party’s candidate. The formula below – the mathematical representation of our model – allows us to do just that for a Republican candidate (note: for a Democratic candidate, just replace the “R” variables with “D” variables, and vice versa).

Essentially, the formula incorporates votes from each of the three types of support, divides those votes by total turnout, and then transforms the result to accurately represent the margin of victory. But now that we finally have the formula, you might be thinking: “Great, but how is this useful?” Good question. This formula can be used in a number of ways, some of which are listed below:

1. Retrospective analysis. With voter registration and turnout numbers easily at hand after an election, one can analyze the outcome of an election after the fact, diving deep into how registration, turnout, and/or candidate quality could have made a difference in an election. As an example, you can read our article “A Data-Driven Perspective on the Jacksonville Mayoral Race.”

2. Election forecasting. Using a combination of polling data, registration data, and partial turnout data, one could make predictions about the outcome of an election. In addition, one could test various scenarios (for example, high vs. low Election Day GOP turnout) and see how they would affect the outcome of the race.

3. Campaign viability analysis. This formula could be used to see which stars would need to align in order for a candidate to win his/her election. This analysis could be done on behalf of a prospective candidate considering entering a race, a PAC or donor considering whether to financially support a candidate, or even by a county or statewide party to determine which races to pour funds and get-out-the-vote efforts into.

Of course, there are some limitations to this model. It assumes a two-way, head-to-head, party vs. party race, which might not be the case in all states or situations. However, for most general elections, this model can be used as a framework for considering why things went – or will go – a certain way. Most importantly, it shifts the conversation from emotion-driven rhetoric to data-driven analysis.

That’s what we do here at Victory Insights. Interested in learning more? Reach out to us today.

Blog: A Data-Driven Perspective on the Jacksonville Mayoral Race

Mon, 24 Jul 2023 14:01:10 GMT

In mid-May of this year, Florida politicos on both sides of the aisle turned their attention towards Duval County, where the race for Jacksonville Mayor was coming down to the wire.

Despite the fact that Democrats made up 4.3% more of the registered voter base than Republicans in Jacksonville, Republican turnout exceeded Democratic turnout by 3.2% by the end of Election Day. With turnout numbers tilted in their favor, Republicans were hopeful that their nominee, Daniel Davis, would come out victorious.

That didn’t happen. Instead, Democrat Donna Deegan won with 52.1% of the vote, besting Davis’s 47.9%. Despite strong Republican turnout – bolstered by the Florida GOP’s get-out-the-vote efforts – the Republican candidate had lost, and many on the right were left scratching their heads and asking, “What went wrong?”

In this article, we’ll be answering that question through the lens of the Victory Formula, a model developed by our team for the purpose of understanding general election outcomes. If you’d like to take a deeper dive into this formula, you can read this article explaining how it works. But for our purposes today, all you need to know is that the formula takes in nine variables (three about voter registration, three about turnout, and three about support for each candidate), and produces the exact margin by which a Republican candidate wins (or loses) a head-to-head general election.

Since the election in Jacksonville has already happened, we were lucky enough to have exact final numbers for voter registration and turnout, meaning all that’s left for us to understand is the layer we refer to as “support.”

This layer has three simple variables: Republican loyalty, Democratic loyalty, and nonpartisan loyalty. Republican loyalty refers to the percentage of Republican turnout that resulted in votes for the Republican candidate. For instance, if 100 Republicans voted in the election, but only 75 of them voted for the Republican candidate, then Republican loyalty would be 75%. Democratic loyalty refers to the same concept, just on the Democratic side. And finally, nonpartisan loyalty simply refers to the percentage of the nonpartisan/third-party that went to the Republican candidate.

None of these variables can be found in the election result data. Instead, we must use the Victory Formula to make inferences about their values, and from there, draw conclusions about why the race ended up the way it did. But there’s an issue: with three unknown variables, there are many different combinations that could result in Deegan’s 4.2-point victory. In fact, these potential “solutions” can be mapped out on a three-dimensional surface:

But this is entirely unhelpful. Besides the fact that representing a 3D object on a 2D screen is a tough task in and of itself, it’s hard to see where each point on the surface (i.e. each potential combination of values) lies. This makes it nearly impossible to draw informed conclusions from the chart. So, to make things simpler, we chose to represent the same data in the GIF below:

Each frame of the GIF shows which combinations of Democratic and Republican loyalty values would have resulted in Deegan’s 4.2-point victory, assuming some specific percentage (denoted in the title of each frame) of nonpartisan voters voted for Davis. The fact that the line moves upward as nonpartisan loyalty increases simply means that the higher the percentage of nonpartisan voters who voted for Davis, the greater the gap between Democratic loyalty and Republican loyalty must have been.

To illustrate this, let’s imagine that 70% of nonpartisan/third-party voters voted for Davis (i.e. 70% nonpartisan loyalty). In that case, Democratic loyalty must have outpaced Republican loyalty by between 7.2% and 13.8%, with most realistic possibilities towards the upper end of that spectrum. To drill down even further, let’s also imagine that Democratic loyalty was exactly 90%. In this case, Republican loyalty must have been just under 76.9%. This 13.1% gap means that Democratic voters were far more loyal to their party’s candidate than Republicans were. The chart below shows what that scenario looks like visually.

Now that we’ve viewed all of the possible scenarios that could have resulted in Deegan’s win, can we diagnose “what went wrong” for Republicans in Duval County? To an extent, yes. Our analysis finds that, in 65% of the scenarios, Democratic loyalty was stronger than Republican loyalty. And in 52% of the scenarios, nonpartisan loyalty was below 50%, meaning that nonpartisan and third-party voters sided with Deegan more than with Davis. In 100% of scenarios, at least one of these aforementioned factors were to blame for Davis’s loss, and in 17% of scenarios, both factors were at play.

While it’s impossible to know for sure, we can conclude that it’s more likely that Daniel Davis lost to Donna Deegan due to a lack of Republican loyalty than due to a lack of nonpartisan loyalty.

Naturally, the next question one might ask would be: “So how can Republicans fix this?” There are three routes to take here: raising Republican loyalty, raising nonpartisan loyalty, or decreasing Democratic loyalty.

First, it’s reasonable to assume that low candidate quality and nasty Republican primaries would result in a decrease in Republican loyalty. The Victory Formula shows that an increase in Republican loyalty of 4.61% or more would have handed Davis the victory. Perhaps clearing the primary election field and avoiding a nasty primary and/or drafting a more likeable candidate with existing countywide appeal (like Deegan had) could have achieved this goal.

Second, decreasing Democratic loyalty is easier said than done, but it requires winning over moderate Democrats. Either a “push” or “pull” strategy could work here. Davis could have “pushed” moderate Democrats away from Deegan by associating her with far left progressives and ideas like Defunding The Police, or he could have “pulled” moderate Democrats over to the Republican side by focusing on issues that resonate with moderates, like a strong economy or public safety. According to the Victory Formula, if Davis could have decreased Democratic loyalty by 4.97% or more, he would have won the race.

And finally, increasing nonpartisan loyalty can be done by any of the aforementioned strategies. The Victory Formula shows that an increase in nonpartisan loyalty of 16.35% or more would have guaranteed Davis the victory, holding everything else constant.

In a practical sense though, we all know that each of these factors influence one another. For example, if more Democrats are defecting to the Republican side (decreasing Democratic loyalty), it’s likely that more nonpartisans are, too (increasing nonpartisan loyalty). To run an effective campaign, outreach should be targeted with these things in mind. By uniting and energizing the Republican base, courting nonpartisans with common sense conservative policies, and fracturing the Democratic base, Republicans could avoid more heartbreaking losses like the 2023 Jacksonville mayoral race.

Meanwhile, here at Victory Insights, we’ll stick to doing what we do best: providing data-driven political insights.

Reach out to us here with any questions.

Blog: Data analysis always helps – even on the School Board

Thu, 29 Jun 2023 17:50:00 GMT

Data analysis always helps – even on the School Board

It’s not just political polling that benefits from rigorous data analysis. This past week, our firm was tapped to do some impromptu data analysis to check if a Collier County, FL School Board member’s claim was accurate. It turns out, it wasn’t – and we had the receipts to prove it.

In November of 2022, Collier County elected an all-new conservative majority to their School Board, and the county’s superintendent “stepped away” from the job not long after. The ensuing process to hire a new superintendent was contentious, but eventually the Board decided on Dr. Leslie Ricciardelli, a longtime Collier County educator, and the next step was to iron out a contract.

There were two schools of thought on the matter. One wing of the Board supported Dr. Ricciardelli’s request to be paid $305,000 per year. The other wing wanted to offer a lower salary, as that’s what was advertised in the job posting. At a public School Board meeting, conservative activist Rachael Schaaf questioned whether this $305,000 salary was a responsible use of taxpayer money. In response, School Board member Stephanie Lucarelli – the most outspoken proponent of the salary increase – argued that $305,000 was “in line with other superintendents across the state.” It is this statement that we were tasked with fact-checking.

To do so, we collected data on superintendents’ salaries from every county in the state of Florida, as well as each county’s total student enrollment. We plotted this data in the chart below, and with the help of a trusty trendline, we clearly showed that the proposed $305,000 salary was out of line with counties with similar enrollments.

After conducting various other analyses, we prepared a one-page report with more convincing charts and data points. Our four key facts were:

For Ricciardelli’s salary to be “in line” with districts with similar enrollments throughout Florida, it would need to be decreased to $191,104, according to a regression model.
Ricciardelli is requesting to be the 5th-highest paid superintendent in Florida, despite Collier County only having the 16th-highest enrollment in the state.
All five Florida superintendents who currently make $300,000/year or more oversee counties with enrollments more than four times as high as Collier County’s.
The average superintendent salary for Florida counties with enrollment of 40,000-50,000 (like Collier County) is $199,084.

These facts are indisputable, and our report put concrete numbers on the table, not just broad generalizations.

It wasn’t long before this report had made its way to all relevant parties in the negotiations. It was distributed to all School Board members by a conservative member of the Board, and the numbers were referenced in a Florida Politics article published ahead of the contract negotiations. Perhaps most importantly, concerned members of the general public used these numbers in their statements opposing the contract, starting with Schaaf, whose fact-focused arguments drew some of the most raucous applause of the night.

When Lucarelli finally had her chance to speak on the matter, she started off with one sheepish admission: “What I said about the superintendent’s contract being in line with all of Florida was incorrect.”

From that point on, the negotiations focused primarily on the facts and figures, rather than on baseless assumptions and generalizations. The public became far more informed, and public figures were held accountable for telling untruths.

Interested in seeing how data analysis could help you, too? You can reach out to us here , and we’ll be happy to have a conversation.

Blog: Are elections really about popularity?

Thu, 25 May 2023 16:53:55 GMT

The belief has long been held that, in order for a candidate to win an election, they must be popular. After all, it makes sense: who would vote for someone they don’t like?

While this age-old belief isn’t entirely false, the reality is far more nuanced, and varies greatly depending on whether we’re talking about primary elections versus general elections, crowded fields versus head-to-head matchups, and small-town races versus big-money slugfests.

Let’s work through several different scenarios in order to unpack this. If you’re the only candidate with a sizeable campaign war chest in a race against unsophisticated competitors, then yes, your spending should primarily be aimed at gaining popularity and building Name ID. Your popularity alone will likely be enough for you to sail across the finish line in first place.

However, what if it’s a crowded Republican primary in which several candidates are well-funded? Now, things are different. In this scenario, it’s unlikely that any one candidate will win more than 50% of the vote, so you’re no longer seeking a majority – only a plurality. In this case, even if a majority of voters like you, what good does that do? It’s not enough voter voters to like you. They need to like you more than your competitors.

Let’s use a real-world example here. In both our Florida and Iowa polls regarding the 2024 Republican presidential primary, more GOP voters had a positive opinion of Ron DeSantis than of Donald Trump. Put simply, DeSantis was more “popular” than Trump. Nevertheless, Trump annihilated DeSantis in head-to-head matchups, winning by 15% in Florida and 19% in Iowa. The moral of the story here is that, in such a situation, it’s not about whether or not people like you, it’s about whether they support you more strongly than they support your opponent.

Building such support inherently requires taking risks. If you only make wishy-washy statements designed to appease everyone, and your competitor makes bold statements that strike a chord in the hearts of voters, the voters will choose your competitor over you nine times out of ten. They very well may like you, but they won’t like you enough to vote for you over your competitor.

Of course, most elections aren’t crowded primaries between sophisticated and well-funded campaigns. Most are simple, and can be won by hitting base hits, not home runs. Nevertheless, it’s crucial to know the difference, and how this difference affects your strategy.

To round out this discussion, let’s refocus our discussion on general elections. Once you’ve made it out of the primary and are now facing a Democrat, the election becomes much more about popularity. General elections are, in most cases, a head-to-head race. Thus, whoever can win over 50% of voters plus one wins the race. Of course, the ease of accomplishing this varies greatly depending on the district. If 70% of likely voters in your district are Republicans, it’s much easier for you to win than in a district where only 35% are Republicans.

But regardless of the partisan makeup of your district, the general axiom remains true: the more popular candidate wins. And in many districts, that means winning over nonpartisan and third-party voters, which requires you to conduct targeted outreach and fine-tune your messaging. (Hint: if you’re in a purple district, the “Top Issues” page on your website should shift closer to the center of the political spectrum during the general election.)

In summary, although popularity is a key factor in most elections, it’s certainly not the end of the story. In many cases, intensity of support is more important than breadth of support. Your strategy should take into account the makeup of the electorate, your competitors, and the type of election.

Best of luck!

Blog: The key Trump-DeSantis poll numbers that NO ONE is talking about

Wed, 24 May 2023 14:51:37 GMT

Every time poll results regarding the 2024 Republican presidential primary are released to the public, the media goes into a frenzy to report on who’s winning, by how much, and in which states. Twitter users speculate endlessly about the implications of the latest numbers and whether Trump or DeSantis has the edge (still many months away from the first votes being cast). In many instances, it’s been our firm releasing these poll results, and despite the widespread coverage they receive, the mainstream media and the general public seem to have missed perhaps the most interesting insight of them all: the Trump-DeSantis divide clearly falls along socioeconomic lines.

We first uncovered this insight in our April poll of likely 2024 GOP primary voters in Florida . The chart below shows the Trump-DeSantis split among lower, middle, and upper class voters.

As you can see, as class increases, Trump’s vote share drops, and DeSantis’s rises. In other words, DeSantis does better among higher-class voters, while Trump does better among lower-class voters. This result was highly statistically significant, and is perhaps exemplified even better in the chart below, which breaks down the Trump-DeSantis divide at each step on a 10-point socioeconomic scale.

Trump dominates the low end of the spectrum, while DeSantis ekes out a narrow one-point victory only among those rated 10 out of 10 on the socioeconomic scale.

So why does this matter? What’s the big deal?

Well, with a GOP that’s become highly populistic ever since Trump’s rise in 2016, being a champion of the “common man” is absolutely crucial to a candidate’s reputation among GOP voters. Trump himself never hesitates to contrast his “common man” approach with the erudite “elitist” approaches of former Republican leaders like John McCain and Mitt Romney.

Furthermore, candidate positioning is crucial to winning Republican primaries. Candidates framed as “the Swamp’s pick” get torn to shreds, while “outsiders” win praise and support. In the 2024 primary, Trump’s already trying to tie DeSantis to the establishment Swamp in his messaging, associating him with the likes of Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush. If DeSantis is supported mainly by the upper class, receives the backing of traditional Republicans, and has a donor network that stretches across the upper echelons of American society, it begs the question: Is Trump right? Is DeSantis the elitist pick for the GOP nomination, while Trump is the common man’s pick?

It's not our place to answer that question, but it does surprise us that the mainstream media and the general public have failed to pick up on this data point – despite the trend being clearly echoed in our subsequent Iowa Caucus poll (see below).

As we mentioned earlier, the first votes in the 2024 Republican primary are still many months away, and things could change drastically before then. However, if DeSantis aims to present himself as the people’s champion – as a continuation of Trump’s populist “America First” agenda that won over America’s voters in 2016 – he has some work to do.

Blog: Should you endorse Donald Trump for President? 4 key factors to consider.

Wed, 24 May 2023 14:42:58 GMT

Since Donald Trump announced his bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination in November of last year, his endorsements have rolled in in waves. The first flurry of endorsements came right after he announced his candidacy, and the most recent came in the wake of his indictment and subsequent arrest. With dozens of congressional Republicans already endorsing Trump, candidates for public office are justifiably wondering whether they themselves should endorse the former president’s 2024 bid.

To help candidates decide whether to endorse Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary, we’ve identified four key questions that candidates should consider before making such a pivotal decision:

1. Are you more concerned about winning the primary election or the general election?

2. How popular is Trump in your state? What about in your district?

3. Have your competitors endorsed anyone?

4. Is Trump actually going to win the Republican primary?

In the remainder of this blog post, we’ll dive deeper into each of these questions and explain how candidates can use them to make a final determination on whether to issue an endorsement.

1. Are you more concerned about winning the primary election or the general election?

Endorsing Donald Trump will likely have two effects: (1) many conservatives will be pleased, and (2) many others will be angered. It’s no secret that Trump is a polarizing figure, so it’s important to consider how the voters you’re courting will respond to your decision.

If you’re already the presumptive Republican nominee in a left-leaning district, that means you should be much more concerned about winning the general election than the Republican primary, and therefore should be courting middle-of-the-road voters. Most GOP voters will side with you over a Democrat no matter what, so it’s not as important to appease GOP voters as it is to win the support of independents and moderate Democrats. In this case, it would probably be unwise to endorse Donald Trump, as he’s typically unpopular among non-GOP voters (in most districts).

On the other hand, if you’re running in a deep-red district, winning the Republican primary will almost certainly translate to winning the general election. In this case, it’s not particularly important to appease anyone other than GOP primary voters, so endorsing Trump would be far less risky, assuming that Republicans in your district still support the former president.

Your own situation will likely fall somewhere between these two extremes, and there are several other factors to consider, which we’ll soon discuss. Nevertheless, it’s extremely important to remember which voters you’re trying to win over when making this crucial decision.

2. How popular is Trump in your state? What about in your district?

This question is pretty self-explanatory. You probably shouldn’t endorse Trump if the vast majority of your electorate dislikes him. And, conversely, you probably should endorse him if the vast majority of your electorate does like him.

However, it’s not always easy to gauge the true sentiments of your electorate without some real, unbiased, up-to-date data. FiveThirtyEight is a great resource for finding this data via political polls. The 2024 presidential election, and Donald Trump in general, are hot topics, so it’s likely that there’s a recent poll in your state (or maybe even your district) on Trump’s favorability and/or whether he should be the 2024 GOP nominee. If you can’t find sufficient data to make your decision, you can also reach out to our team to commission your own proprietary poll among voters in your district.

It's important to not just consider whether Trump is popular or not, but also whether voters support his new presidential bid. For instance, our polling in Florida shows that many DeSantis 2024 supporters still hold Trump in high regard, but just don’t want him to be the nominee. For this reason, it’s crucial to look at all aspects of the issue, and not just simple toplines.

3. Have your competitors endorsed anyone?

Your competitors can and should influence your decision of whether or not to make an endorsement, but the calculus here can get tricky. If no one has endorsed a 2024 contender, then it may be safest to stick with the crowd and stay out of it. But, the first to endorse a 2024 candidate could get a boost from supporters of that same candidate. There’s also the confounding factor – although one you should never count on unless you’ve had a definitive conversation about such – that your endorsement of a candidate could result in a reciprocal endorsement from that very same candidate.

Even still, there are more factors to consider here. What if, for example, you’re in a ten-way Republican primary where all nine of the other candidates have endorsed Trump? Maybe, purely for strategic purposes, endorsing some other candidate besides Trump could help you differentiate yourself and carve out just enough support to win a plurality of votes. Clearly, the consideration of your competitors’ decisions can be a tricky yet crucial task.

4. Is Trump actually going to win the Republican primary?

This is probably the most contentious question of the four because it requires a fair degree of speculation. No one can say with certainty who the 2024 Republican nominee will be, but most politicos would agree that Trump has the best chance right now. Our recent polling in Iowa showed Trump with a 30-point lead over the entire field, and our Florida poll showed Trump beating Ron DeSantis in his own state.

If you choose not to endorse anyone (or worse, endorse one of Trump’s competitors), and Trump becomes the nominee anyway, it could put you in a tough spot. Republican voters might question how much of an “America First conservative” you truly are if you refused to endorse the de facto founder of the America First movement when he needed it the most. However, if you endorse Trump and then he fails to secure the Republican nomination, that wouldn’t be a great look for you, either.

Clearly, there are many factors to consider before making your decision, and it sure isn’t black and white. Remember to (1) remember which voters you’re courting, (2) consider your electorate’s opinion, (3) account for competitors’ decisions, and (4) think big picture. By asking yourself the four questions outlined above, we hope you will gain more clarity on the important decision of whether to endorse Donald Trump for President.

Best of luck!

Press Release: Victory Insights Wins "Best Use of New Digital Technology" at 2023 Pollie Awards

Mon, 24 Apr 2023 20:34:49 GMT

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

April 24, 2023

Contact: Victory Insights

info@victory-insights.com

(929) 388-6585

Victory Insights Wins "Best Use of New Digital Technology" at 2023 Pollie Awards

Palm Springs, CA – Last week, the American Association of Political Consultants hosted the 2023 Pollie Awards, dubbed "The Oscars of Political Advertising," in Palm Springs, California. At this event, Victory Insights was awarded 1st place in the "Best Use of New Digital Technology" category.

Our firm was honored with this prestigious award as a result of our groundbreaking analysis software, AnyWeigh. Throughout the 2022 election cycle, AnyWeigh was used in dozens of campaigns to analyze poll results, conduct election simulations, and make informed conclusions about electorates, all within one standalone software program.

Innovation is at the heart of everything we do. We were founded with the intention of shaking up the political polling industry, and that's exactly what we've done. We look forward to continuing our cycle of innovation and changing the political polling industry for the better.

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Press Release: Ron DeSantis Projected to Defeat Charlie Crist for Florida Governor

Thu, 03 Nov 2022 03:28:58 GMT

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

November 2, 2022

Contact: Victory Insights

info@victory-insights.com

(929) 388-6585

Ron DeSantis Projected to Defeat Charlie Crist for Florida Governor

Fort Myers, FL – Victory Insights is projecting that incumbent Republican Ron DeSantis will defeat Democratic challenger Charlie Crist in the 2022 race for Florida Governor.

Polling gives DeSantis a 13% lead just a week before Election Day, all but guaranteeing a win. Our simulations give DeSantis a 99.99% chance of victory. Expect him to cruise to victory on Tuesday.

Victory Insights is one of the nation's premier political polling, outreach, and analysis firms. Our presence, experience, and accuracy - particularly in the state of Florida - is unmatched.

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UPDATE (November 9, 2022): Ron DeSantis has been re-elected as Florida Governor, as predicted by Victory Insights.

Press Release: Laurel Lee Projected to Win Republican Primary for Florida's 15th Congressional District

Tue, 23 Aug 2022 03:40:47 GMT

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

August 22, 2022

Contact: Victory Insights

info@victory-insights.com

(929) 388-6585

Laurel Lee Projected to Win Republican Primary for Florida's 15th Congressional District

Fort Myers, FL – Victory Insights is projecting that Laurel Lee will win the Republican Primary for Florida's 15th Congressional District. The hotly-contested seat is one to watch in November, as many are expecting it to turn red as a result of the post-2020 redistricting process.

Polling shows Laurel Lee head and shoulders above her closest competition. Our simulations give Lee a 99.2% chance of victory, all but guaranteeing an Election Day victory.

Victory Insights is one of the nation's premier political polling, outreach, and analysis firms. Our presence, experience, and accuracy - particularly in the state of Florida - is unmatched.

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UPDATE (August 24, 2022): Laurel Lee has won the Republican Primary for Florida's 15th Congressional District, as predicted by Victory Insights.

Press Release: Calvin Wimbish Projected to Dominate FL-10 Republican Primary

Mon, 22 Aug 2022 03:38:27 GMT

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

August 21, 2022

Contact: Victory Insights

info@victory-insights.com

(929) 388-6585

Calvin Wimbish Projected to Dominate FL-10 Republican Primary

Fort Myers, FL – Victory Insights is projecting that Calvin Wimbish will win the Republican Primary for Florida's 10th Congressional District by a sizeable margin.

Polling indicates that Calvin Wimbish is the only candidate in the race with real, sizeable support. We expect him to win by double digits (percentage-wise) on Election Day.

Victory Insights is one of the nation's premier political polling, outreach, and analysis firms. Our presence, experience, and accuracy - particularly in the state of Florida - is unmatched.

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UPDATE (August 24, 2022): Calvin Wimbish has won the Republican Primary for Florida's 10th Congressional District by a comfortable margin, as predicted by Victory Insights.

Press Release: Kevin White Projected to Win Republican Primary for Franklin County Sheriff

Wed, 18 May 2022 03:33:39 GMT

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

May 17, 2022

Contact: Victory Insights

info@victory-insights.com

(929) 388-6585

Kevin White Projected to Win Republican Primary for Franklin County Sheriff

Louisburg, NC – It’s primary election day in North Carolina, and Victory Insights is pleased to announce the results of a poll studying the Republican Primary for Franklin County Sheriff. After simulating the election 10,000 times, we have determined that Mr. White has a 99.7% chance of victory. Fellow Republican candidates Bruce Baker and Larry McKeithan have a combined 0.3% chance of victory.

Mr. White is projected to win with a majority of votes, far exceeding the 30% threshold required to avoid a runoff in North Carolina. He is also expected to win a plurality of votes in both the absentee/early voting stage and the Election Day stage. As for Mr. Baker and Mr. McKeithan, we cannot confidently conclude which candidate will finish in second place due to the small sample size of our poll. Regardless, we fully expect Mr. White to defeat both of his opponents by a significant margin.

Victory Insights is one of the nation’s premier political analysis firms. Their polls have been featured on outlets including Fox News, the New York Times, The Hill, and Forbes. They are a trusted resource for political analysis across the United States.

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Press Release: Trump-Endorsed Eli Crane Projected to Win AZ-02 Republican Primary

Sun, 03 Apr 2022 03:21:58 GMT

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

August 2, 2022

Contact: Victory Insights

info@victory-insights.com

(929) 388-6585

Trump-Endorsed Eli Crane Projected to Win AZ-02 Republican Primary

Fort Myers, FL – Victory Insights is projecting that Eli Crane will win the Republican Primary for Arizona's 2nd Congressional District. Bolstered by an endorsement from President Trump, Crane is expected to beat a slate of high-powered opponents, particularly Walt Blackman and Mark DeLuzio.

Our polling indicates that Crane has a 97% chance of victory. Blackman will most likely finish in second place, while DeLuzio will most likely finish in third. The remaining four candidates trail far behind.

Victory Insights is one of the nation's premier political polling and analysis firms. Headquartered in Southwest Florida, Victory is trusted by clients across the nation to provide accurate and up-to-date polling data on some of the nation's most intense elections and issues.

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UPDATE (August 3, 2022): Eli Crane has won the Republican Primary for Arizona's 2nd Congressional District, followed by Blackman and DeLuzio, as predicted by Victory insights.

Blog: From Blue to Red: Redistricting Analysis in TX SD-10

Tue, 16 Nov 2021 23:03:15 GMT

From Blue to Red: Redistricting Analysis in TX SD-10

Last month, the Texas Legislature and Governor Greg Abbott approved new State Senate maps for the next decade, and as our recent analysis revealed, Republicans were the primary benefactor. However, one seat caught our attention more than any other, and that’s Senate District 10. Here’s why.

What Happened in SD-10?

Incumbent Senator Beverly Powell is a Democrat who’s represented Senate District 10 ever since her upset victory of an incumbent Republican in the 2018 “Blue Wave.” But if the new Texas Senate maps take effect, she’ll likely have to find a new gig. As a result of redistricting, her district shifted nearly 17% to the right, flipping from a 5.4% Democratic advantage to an 11.4% Republican advantage. As her 2018 victory was only by a margin of 3.4%, this shift in favor of Republicans would almost certainly prove fatal for her re-election hopes.

After all, even if her district lines remained the same, her 2018 Blue Wave victory would be hard to replicate in a 2022 election season which many expect to sway heavily Republicans’ favor. In fact, using a regression model based on prior Texas Senate election results, Senator Powell is modeled to lose by a margin of approximately 27% in 2022, assuming that no judicial decision requires her district’s lines to be redrawn. On the chart below, District 10’s prediction data point is at the intersection of the yellow lines. As you can see, while it is certainly one of the more contested Republican-leaning seats, Republicans have a massive advantage nonetheless.

However, Senator Powell is not going down without a fight. Earlier this month, she filed a lawsuit alleging that the new district dilutes minority voters’ electoral power. Let’s examine that claim.

SD-10 Demographic Shifts

Upon glancing at a comparison of the old SD-10 and the new SD-10 (such as the one shown below), it’s clear that the district underwent significant changes. Formerly only a subsection of Tarrant County, SD-10 now incorporates parts of Tarrant and Parker Counties, as well as the entirety of five other counties. However, this is far from enough evidence to conclude that the district was intentionally constructed to dilute the minority vote.

Perhaps the most straightforward way to examine whether the district dilutes the minority vote is to simply compare the demographics of the old and new districts. The chart below does just that. It’s true that the Hispanic, Black, and Asian votes were each reduced, and that the Anglo vote increased. But once again, is that enough evidence to claim that the minority vote was intentionally diluted? Again, not quite. After all, there are always slight demographic shifts when districts are refurnished to fit changing population dynamics. Additionally, each of the minority demographic groups decreased by a margin of 3.6% or less, which is certainly a believable shift when the district’s lines were so fundamentally changed.

Republicans have fought back against Sen. Powell’s claims that the redistricting process intentionally diluted the voices of voters of color, pointing out that they used a “race-blind” process (a term with a contradictory connotation for some). Regardless, the reality is that the new SD-10 electorate (barely) has an Anglo majority, while the old SD-10 only had an Anglo plurality.

So what’s the verdict?

While that’s a question the Texas judicial system will have to answer in the coming weeks and months, we can still provide an educated opinion with the help of some data. While it is true that the minority vote in SD-10 now has less power than it did before redistricting, minorities in other Democratic-leaning districts gained power as a result of redistricting. All things considered, we find it much more likely that the discrepancies are a result of partisan undercurrents rather than any sort of racial motivation. It’s nearly impossible to ignore politics during the redistricting process, and Sen. Powell was in an extremely vulnerable district to begin with.

This type of thing is bound to happen to someone when all 31 districts are being reshaped. Unfortunately for Sen. Powell, unless the judicial system rules in her favor, it looks like she’ll be the casualty of this decade’s redistricting process.

Blog: Texas Senate Redistricting: A Statistical Analysis

Mon, 15 Nov 2021 22:39:38 GMT

Texas Senate Redistricting: A Statistical Analysis

On October 25th, Texas Governor Greg Abbott put pen to paper and signed off on new maps for Texas’ Senate districts. This capped-off the arduous redistricting process which takes place every ten years, meant to account for population shifts measured in the decennial censuses. Barring any judicial orders to redesign the new districts, the new map will take effect for the 2022 primary and general election seasons. So, we decided to dig deep into the numbers and estimate how the newly-drawn lines will affect Texas Senate races in 2022. Spoiler alert: the GOP benefits.

Currently, Republicans control 18 of the 31 seats in the Texas Senate, and Democrats occupy the other 13. Despite the demographic shifts taking place in Texas, the fact remains that it is certainly a conservative-leaning state, and its legislature reflects that. Interestingly, though, Republican candidates often even outperform the intrinsic partisan advantages they’re afforded. Allow me to explain.

The Built-in Conservative Advantage

The chart below shows how much the Republican won (or lost) by in each of the 26 most recent regular Texas Senate races in which both a Republican and a Democrat ran. There were 3 seats in which no Republican ran and 2 seats in which no Democrat ran, but these seats were excluded in order to analyze what happens when Republicans and Democrats face off against one another.

The other variable included in this chart, District GOP Advantage, measures the partisan advantage the GOP enjoys in that district. This is calculated by subtracting the percentage of likely voters in the district who are modeled as Democrats from the percentage of likely voters in the district who are modeled as Republicans. Essentially, a District GOP Advantage of 10% simply means that Republican voters make up 10% more of the district’s electorate than Democratic voters do.

Here’s where things get interesting. When you separate the elections by which year they took place (2018 or 2020) and generate a regression line to fit the data, you notice that the 2018 line (black) has a steeper slope than the 2020 line (orange), but the 2020 line has a higher intercept. The steepness measures how much the District GOP Advantage correlated with the election’s outcome, and the intercept measures the “built-in” advantage (or disadvantage) Republican candidates had that year, regardless of the District GOP Advantage. But why does this matter?

Well, this intercept is one of the most effective and empirical ways to measure a party’s performance in an election year. In 2018, widely dubbed the “Blue Wave” due to Democrats’ impressive national gains in that year’s elections, the GOP Margin of Victory intercept was only 2.1%, meaning that in a district whose likely voters were equally split between Democrats and Republicans, the Republican candidate would be expected to win by an average of 2.1%. In contrast, that number jumped to 17.9% in 2020, a more “typical” election year – at least in terms of partisan turnout. In other words, Republicans had a much better year in 2020.

Direct Effects of Texas Senate Redistricting

But what does all of this have to do with redistricting? Well, the purpose of fitting a regression model to the data was to derive a formula that predicts an election outcome based on the District GOP Advantage. While we don’t yet know what the election outcomes will be in each redistricted seat, we do know the District GOP Advantage for each new district. Thus, we can predict the results of the 2022 Texas Senate elections by plugging in the new District GOP Advantage values into one of the models we generated based on previous election data.

But before we jump into the results of applying this model to predict 2022 outcomes, let’s first examine how each district’s GOP Advantage changed after the redistricting process. The following chart shows which party benefited from redistricting in each district, and by how much.

After considering the above chart for a few moments, three main patterns become apparent.

First, you’ll likely notice the right-most quadrant of the chart (>40% District GOP Advantage) is almost entirely empty, while the left-most quadrant (>40% Democratic Advantage) is much more crowded. What this means is that there are many more “packed” Democratic districts (8 old districts, 9 new districts) than “packed” Republican districts (2 old districts, 0 new districts). When Democratic voters are consolidated into districts with an extremely overwhelming Democratic majority, it makes it easier for Republican-leaning districts to form, as the largest chunks of the Democratic base have already been removed from the equation. But wait - this doesn’t necessarily mean Republicans committed any foul play in order to make this happen. Democratic bases are often naturally consolidated in inner cities, while Republican electorates are typically spread out over wider distances, often with Democratic enclaves.
Next, redistricting “reined in” the partisan advantages in many of the most partisan districts. For instance, the three districts with the greatest GOP Advantage lost some of their advantage after redistricting, as did the five districts with the greatest Democratic Advantage. In practicality, this has few implications, as these districts retained a heavy partisan advantage.
Finally, the districts closest to the 0% Advantage line (i.e. the most competitive districts) moved farther to one side or the other. In fact, of the seven Texas Senate districts with a partisan advantage of 10% or less, every single one of them gained a partisan advantage of 10% or more after redistricting. Six of these districts gained a 10% or more Republican advantage, while only one gained a 10% or more Democratic advantage. The below chart isolates these seven districts, showing how almost all of them shifted to the right quite substantially.

Pay special attention to District 10 in the above graph, which shifted from a 5.4% Democratic Advantage to an 11.4% Republican advantage. Incumbent Senator Beverly Powell (D) would almost certainly lose her seat in the next election cycle, and has now filed a lawsuit alleging that the new district dilutes the minority vote.

But of all the graphs we’ve presented thus far, none exemplifies the direct partisan effects of redistricting quite as succinctly as the one below. Districts with no clear partisan advantage (i.e. those surrounding the 0% Advantage line) got pushed to one side or another, while those with the largest partisan advantages (i.e. those on the fringes) got pushed towards the middle.

Statistical Predictions for the 2022 Texas Senate Elections

Now, it’s time to discuss why redistricting even matters in the first place: elections. In the 2022 election cycle, the new districts will take effect for the very first time. And as discussed earlier, we can use past election data relating the District GOP Advantage to the GOP Margin of Victory to predict future election results.

But that brings us to our next question: should we use the data from 2018 model or the data from 2020? Since most politicos expect Republicans to perform at least as well in 2022 as they did in 2020, we’ll use the 2020 regression model to predict 2022 results. Here’s the formula:

GOP Margin of Victory = (0.82518 x District GOP Advantage) + 17.941%

By plugging in the new District GOP Advantage values, we can predict whether the Republican or Democratic candidate will win in each 2022 Texas Senate race, and by how much. The below chart displays the results of this prediction model.

As shown above, the model predicts Republicans to win 19 of the 31 Texas Senate seats in 2022, a 1-seat gain compared to their current 18 seats. However, it should be noted that all 19 of these seats are predicted to be won by a significant margin - in fact, by more than 25%. Democrats, on the other hand, are facing much more of an uphill battle. Exactly half of the seats they’re expected to win in 2022 are predicted to be decided by a margin less than 25%, giving Republicans opportunities to pick up even more seats, especially if they perform even better than expected.

A natural question might be: “Which currently Democratic seat is predicted to flip red in 2022 to give Republicans a 19-12 majority instead of 18-13?” Well, this is where District 10 once again comes into play. We’ve already discussed how Democratic Sen. Beverly Powell is suing over her district’s significant shift to the right, and it turns out that that might be her only hope of remaining in office. Our model predicts that her district will be won by a Republican candidate by a margin of approximately 27.3%, which is music to Republicans’ ears and a worst nightmare for Sen. Powell.

All in all, the Texas Senate redistricting process decreased the number of tossup districts in favor of creating more heavily Republican or Democratic districts. And while a few Democratic incumbents gained a stronger partisan hold on their district (5 of them, to be exact), Republicans were the overwhelming winners of this redistricting process. Despite all the talk of Texas becoming “California-ized” with the massive influx of new residents, don’t expect the Texas Senate to turn blue anytime soon - especially not before another round of redistricting.

Press Release: Cliff Bentz Projected to Win OR-02 Republican Primary

Tue, 19 May 2020 03:43:55 GMT

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

May 18, 2020

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Cliff Bentz Projected to Win OR-02 Republican Primary

Fort Myers, FL – Victory Insights is projecting that Cliff Bentz will win the Republican Primary for Oregon's 2nd Congressional District, despite being outspent massively by Jimmy Crumpacker and Knute Buehler.

Although he performed more weakly in his district's bigger cities, Bentz swept the eastern counties, shoring up grassroots support in small towns across the district.

As of today, Victory Insights is the only pollster calling the race in favor of Bentz. However, our models show with high levels of confidence that Bentz will pull off the victory, against all odds.

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UPDATE (May 20, 2020): Cliff Bentz has won the Republican Primary for Oregon's 2nd Congressional District, as predicted by Victory insights.